Showing posts with label stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stocks. Show all posts

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Rule #15 Don't try to "Beat the Market"

Do you know the only thing that gives me pleasure? 
It's to see my dividends coming in. -John D. Rockerfeller

Have you ever heard anyone talk about beating the stock market?  Its what hotshot investors talk about at cocktail parties.  What they mean is that if the stock market has an annual return of 10% in one year, they have had a better return than that 10%.  Very impressive indeed!  They will try to achieve this by building and adjusting a stock portfolio, mutual fund portfolio, or with index funds.  Beating the market is all well and good if the market goes up, but what if the market goes down? If the market has a loss of 5% the next year and the investor only lost 3%, then they have also beaten the market because they have done better than the market has done that year.... but people don't tend to brag about losing money "Yeah! I only lost 3% this year!".  The market (and by market I mean Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 index, or TSX index etc...) has historically returned 8-12% returns annually but those numbers are smoothed out over decades of data, so you certainly couldn't count on a 10% return every single year... as has been the case the last decade.  One thing about measuring returns in the market this way is you only realize these returns when you sell the investment... and that brings on the issue of timing, and few people have mastered that.

I don't really care if I beat the market or not.  Beating the market is not my objective.  I am not in competition with the market, My objective is to build a portfolio that will eventually result in me being financially independent.  Who cares if you beat the market if the market has lousy or negative returns?  If the market loses 25% in a year, I feel no pride in only losing 20% that year.  And if the market were to make 25% in one year, its ridiculous for me to worry that I only returned 22% instead.  I feel this "beat the market" mentality is a waste and makes people take their eyes off the prize, or chase capital returns instead of stable cashflow.  People shop around for stocks or sectors hoping to get a winning year or to follow advisors or mutual funds because they have a few good yearly returns.  That just seems dumb to me.  I prefer a system that provides stable and somewhat more predictable results.

We have our own metrics.  We don't compete with the market, and we sure as hell dont try to beat it.  Our goal is to grow our cash-flow on existing assets by 8% a year... We get this by reinvesting the 3-5%-ish dividends that we get in cash-flow and then plan on a 4+% increase in dividends annually.  We generally don't pay much attention to stock prices once we own the stock because they tend to fluctuate due to world and political events rather than be based on actual company financial metrics.  Tracking growth of cashflow is pretty easy to understand and we don't have to follow the stock prices or compare with how the market is doing.  In fact, since we are reinvesting dividends to buy more stocks for cash-flow, we don't mind when the market takes a dive because it means we can pick up good stocks with even higher yields than before.



Every year for the last 10 years, our cashflow from existing assets has increased.  Every year! And Every year it has gone up above the rate of inflation.  The lowest growth rate was about 5% in 2009 and the highest has been about 15%.  Thats a pretty good record if you ask me.  This year is turning out to be a good one, we expect about a 10% increase in total this year if we keep going the way we're going.  Three quarters of our dividend producing stocks have increased their dividends this year and the rest probably will within the next 3-6 months, and we just keep rolling those dividends back into the portfolio buying more cash-flow-producing stocks, furthering the compounding.  This increase also does not include any new monies that we put to work in this strategy.  Include the new monies, and our conservative leveraging strategy and we're increasing our cashflow above our 8% per year target relatively easily.  Do I care how this all compares to what the stock market performance is doing these days?  No, I don't.

Monday, August 6, 2012

Rule #13 Take Accountability. Stop Whining! Go Read a Book already.

"You will get what you want, when you stop making
excuses on why you don’t have it."  - Unknown

Rule 13 is part rant, part rule.

A lot of people are lazy about money. They'd rather watch The Simpsons or Mad Men than figure out a way to make their lives better.  Thats fine with me but there is one nagging thing that I can't stand about many of these folks.... I've had it with their whining!  "My life is lousy, I can't get ahead, The Man is keeping me down, There is no way out!"  This is pure bullshit.  There are many things most people can do, but will they actually do it?  In many cases, no.

Jim Rohn is credited with saying "Poor people have big TVs, Rich people have big Libraries." I love this saying. I think it epitomizes a major problem in society these days.  Its not that people don't know what to do with their money to make their lives better, its that the don't want to know, and that they would rather spend their free time doing things that rot their brain instead of making their life better through gaining knowledge.  There are plenty of free resources on the web or at the library to educate ones self in basic money management or investing, but the it seems people don't seek them out.  My iPod is full of e-books and audiobooks on economics, time management, and finances.  Its also full of more light-hearted stuff just so you know.  I think part of this attitude is due to the fact that many people do not want to make the sacrifices needed to get ahead, so the bury their head or make excuses for not opening a book or asking for help.  Financial Success does not come quickly and generally does not come easily.  It also doesn't happen if you lack the knowledge and rely on dumb luck to help you make it through life.  80% of North American millionaires are self-made, and they got there because of knowledge, and hard work, not because they are any more special than you or I, or because they had rich parents.  They didn't buy into the mantra that someone else should make their life better.  They had the ambition to learn what it took and then went for it.

I'm not suggesting you need to manage your investments yourself or go start a business, or that you shouldnt get help to set up a proper portfolio or debt management plan, just that you need to be engaged with your own money and take steps to make your life better financially.  There is loads and loads of free knowledge out there waiting for you to learn it.  If you need help learning something, ask for help.  If you don't understand what company stock is, Google it.  Don't just sit there saying "My financial IQ sucks so I am screwed!"

Here are some books I recommend if you are looking to get acquainted with saving and investing money, or understanding how the economy works:
Stop Working by Derek Foster
The Cashflow Quadrant by Robert Kiyosaki
The Millionaire Next Door by Thomas Stanley and William Danko
Naked Economics by Charles Wheelan and Burton Malkiel

None of the books are a financial silver bullet, but they will get you thinking about money, if you aren't already doing that, its a good start.  I like all of these books because they are easy to read and they take the jargon out of finances, economics and investing.  I have either found them at the library or borrowed them from friends for free.  I'd start with Stanley and Danko first if you are just starting to think about money.  Happy reading.


Monday, July 30, 2012

Rule #11 Dividends - Buy Stocks for the Cash Flow

A major part of our financial independence plan is to build a portfolio of income producing assets.  These assets will be our income into the future and will replace our need for other types of income such as employment.  Our preferred type of income is Dividend Income from stocks that we own.  Dividends are a form of passive income that provide cash-flow with virtually no "work" on our part to maintain the asset.  The dividends are paid by the corporations to shareholders over a set period, usually quarterly, throughout the year.  The corporations take a portion of their earnings and send a cheque to shareholders as a benefit to owning the stock.  While it is a strategy that has risk - and don't forget every strategy has some risk - if you choose stable companies that provide goods and services that people use everyday, the risk is greatly reduced to almost nothing... note that I said almost.  There are many companies, with decades worth of dividend-paying history, that will continue to pay dividends well into the future.  Another great thing about dividends is that many companies make it a point to increase their dividend at or above the rate of inflation each year.  These are the companies we want.  If the company increases the annual dividend by 5%, and inflation is 3%, we've just gotten a raise that out paces inflation.  Ultimately this means we have increased your buying power that year.

The sectors that we invest in are primarily sectors in which goods and services used by people will either continue or increase in the future such as: Real Estate, Oil and Gas, Energy Delivery (Pipelines and Electricity Transmission), Banks, Insurance, Consumer Staples, Booze etc... We generally stay away from High Tech, Food Retail, Clothing Companies, and Consumer Discretionaries, because these companies are built on ever-changing innovation, thin margins, or primarily good economic times (non-recession proof).

One stock that I have owned for the last 8 years is Bank of Nova Scotia or BNS on the TSX.  It has payed a dividend for 179 years, without ever having cut it.  Most years it has increased its dividend above the rate of inflation, some years increasing the dividend by 10% or more.  ThePassiveIncomeEarner.com did a great summary of BNS last year that does a better job than I ever could could at explaining why its such a great company to own for dividends.  You can check that summary out here.

We view buying dividend stocks as akin to buying mini-pensions that will pay our way into the future.  If, at age 25, I buy $10000 of BMO stock today, with a 5% dividend, that stock will now pay me $500 a year this year and every year after that until I sell the stock.  What if I hold this stock until I am 85 years old?  Great! I get to collect that little mini-pension for as long as I hold the stock.  I can do whatever I want with that money along the way... spend it, re-invest it, earmark it for Christmas, whatever.  Sweet!  BMO has never lowered or missed a dividend payment in the past, and there is a pretty good chance that they will keep paying it into the future... and they will likely increase it inline with or above inflation under normal economic conditions.  This way of looking at dividend stocks is different than how most people have been taught to look at stocks.  They look at the price at which they buy the stock and then fret over what price they are going to sell it at.  Timing of the buy/sell trade is particularly important.  We buy the asset for the cash-flow and and then sit on it as long as the company can meet its dividend payments.  We don't fuss on when to sell it, because we have no intention of selling it.

Thats one of the great thing about owning shares specifically for their dividend is that it removes the day-to-day worrying that goes with watching a stock portfolio go up and down in volatile markets.  Because I own the company primarily for the cash-flow, if the stock goes up or down it makes little difference to me, because I don't intend on selling it any time soon  What I do keep track of is the company's ability to pay me that cheque now and in the future.  So long as the company is healthy and selling their goods, I am happy to own the stock.  During the 2008-2009 financial crisis, only 1 of the 20 or so stocks that we hold cut their dividends, the others either held their payment at the same level or a few even increased their payments.  So our dividend income actually increased overall during the financial collapse because the stocks we owned kept chugging along, regardless of the economy.  Capital appreciation will most definitely happen gradually as earnings and growth continue with the company, and if we really need the money we can liquidate some stock to free up some capital, but thats only under emergency conditions.

During our working (employment) years we roll all the dividends back into the portfolio to buy more stocks, so the dividends also act as a source of income to continue buying even more stocks... Hey, this sounds a lot like the compounding affect.  The bigger our dividend income gets, the more our portfolio grows as we plough it back in with more income.  The longer you can leave it alone, the bigger the cash-flow will be when you pull the plug on working.  When we are finished working or if we are taking a mini-reirement, we stop re-investing the money and just turn on the dividend spigot for our day-to-day cash-flow.